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REQUEST DEMO -- -- -- -- -- -- HOME NEWSROOM Share SHARE Email Share Tweet Pin LinkedIn Google+ Reddit TOOLS Save Print Potential Impact of COVID-19 on U.S. Construction Starts By Richard Branch, Chief Economist, Dodge Data & Analytics BEDFORD, MA – FEBRUARY 24, 2020 – The mounting number of cases of COVID-19 (Coronavirus) has roiled stock markets around the world and added concern that global economies will be materially impacted. Estimates from Moody’s Analytics suggest that first-quarter U.S. GDP growth could be reduced by nearly 0.45 percentage points as a result of the outbreak with tourism and travel taking the largest hit among U.S. industries. If the outbreak is contained quickly, U.S. economic growth should rebound in the second quarter. The most notable impact comes from supply chains for goods from China. These supply chains have been crimped as Chinese workers remain at home, causing production to fall substantially. Here in the U.S., General Motors unions have warned that U.S. production could slow as parts dry up. Apple Inc. announced that it will not meet its first-quarter revenue projections as their China plants are shuttered. Even N.H.L hockey players have noted the shrinking supply of hockey sticks. Consumer sentiment is also taking a hit. Should containment of the virus be elusive, we could see consumer spending and business investment sour — which could cause a further drag on U.S. economic growth. The construction industry is also not immune to challenges presented by the outbreak. A rough calculation suggests that nearly 30% of products typically used in U.S. building construction are imports from China, making the country the largest single supplier to the U.S. If the virus is not quickly contained and quarantines remain intact, supplies will continue to tighten causing building costs to continue to escalate, and potentially causing projects to be delayed or cancelled outright. The exact extent to which this happens will depend on the ability of U.S. builders to substitute products from China to domestic or other international suppliers. Note though, that many Asian countries, such as Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam that also export building products to the U.S. rely heavily on raw materials from China. At present, our outlook continues to expect a modest decline in construction starts in 2020. The current outbreak is one of many issues facing the U.S. economy this year that will lead to a slowdown in overall economic growth and push starts lower. The issue, however, remains in flux. Dodge will continue to assess the impact of the COVID-19 virus in the coming months. HOME NEWSROOM Share SHARE Email Share Tweet Pin LinkedIn Google+ Reddit TOOLS Save Print The Devil is in the Details — 2019Q4 GDP By Richard Branch, Chief Economist BEDFORD, MA – January 30, 2020 – The advance reading for U.S. Gross Domestic Product in the fourth quarter came in at a close-to-expected annualized 2.1%. While likely to be revised in the coming months, it painted a picture of an economy that continues to hover near its potential rate. A closer look at the details, however, suggests that there are reasons to expect slower growth in 2020. On the plus side, the fourth quarter pace of government spending picked up driven equally by state and local governments and federal defense spending. Trade also provided a sizeable positive contribution to the headline number as exports jumped and imports tumbled. Total fixed investment was neutral in the fourth quarter. As expected, residential investment picked up in line with rising sales and construction of single family housing in the fourth quarter. However, nonresidential investment in both equipment and structures declined for the third consecutive quarter most likely due to uncertainty over trade policy. Inventories were also a net drag on headline GDP. The consumer, who has been the stalwart of economic growth through most of 2019, took a concerning breather, however, as spending growth cooled from an annualized 4.6% in the second quarter and 3.1% in the third quarter to just 1.8% in the final three months of the year. For the full year, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.3% pace, down from the 2.9% rate in 2018, but about on par with growth in 2017. Looking ahead, labor constraints are likely to slow employment growth in 2020 making it harder for consumers to sustain their level of contribution to the economic growth. Business investment is also likely to remain sluggish as uncertainty over trade policy continues despite the Phase I trade deal signed between the U.S. and China in early-January. Residential construction will also struggle to gain a foothold as margins to build entry level homes for the ballooning millennial generation remain tight. All told, economic growth will slow but remain positive in 2020, allowing the longest expansion in U.S. history to continue. HOME DODGE NEWSLETTERS Share SHARE Email Share Tweet Pin LinkedIn Google+ Reddit TOOLS Save Print Fed Cuts Rate for Second Time in 2019 By Richard Branch, Chief Economist, Dodge Data & Analytics BEDFORD, MA – September 19, 2019 – As widely expected, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered its federal funds rate range by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.75% – 2.0%. This marks the second rate cut of the year. What was less certain about the Fed’s move, however, was how they would portray current risks to the economy and what that implied for further changes to the federal funds rate. In the accompanying press release, the Fed noted that consumer spending “has been rising at a strong pace” due to underlying strength in the labor market. This phrasing was slightly more upbeat than in July’s release when they also cut rates. However, they also noted “business fixed investment and exports have been weakening”, a more ominous tone than in July and a nod to potential risks to the economy caused by trade tensions with China. Overall, the Fed remained upbeat and raised their 2019 GDP forecast from 2.1% to 2.2%, with economic growth pegged at 2.0% in 2020, unchanged from their previous forecast. The “dot plot”, which shows individual committee members’ expectations of the future path of the federal funds rate, also shifted slightly. The median path of the plot now suggests that the rate will remain in its present range through the end of the year, after the 50 bps of easing that occurred between July and September. Interestingly, it also sugges...